54  Negotiations end war?

Abstract

Know the trick to end wars? Not by appeasing the aggressor. By defeating the aggressor. Then negotiate.

Myth

All wars are ended through negotiations.

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Truth

Some wars end with victory. Other wars end with negotiations - if both sides are willing to negotiate.

54.1 Russia invaded while negotiating

Russia began the war with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine during intense negotiations with Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden.12 Its overtures for ceasefires or peace talks lack sincerity and are mere public relations tactics. There was a round of peace talks with Russia in March 2022. It has put in the spotlight a significant incompatibility of interests between the warring parties. Several rounds of negotiations did not bring the major results that one could have hoped for in the West.3 The Russian government was not interested in a diplomatic solution at all, by framing its objectives as “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine.4

Meanwhile, Ukraine showed more flexibility than Russia when Kyiv was ready for some compromises regarding its neutral status, the issues of the Russian language, and the return to the status quo before February 24. However, Ukraine is not willing to sign another “Minsk 3” agreement, which would not give any security guarantees and full restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity within the borders of 1991. Ukraine made a serious attempt at negotiations on the peace conference in June 2024 in Switzerland, but Russia refused to participate in these talks and attempted to boycott them with poisonous offers.5

54.2 Russia doesn’t want to negotiate

See Chapter 55.

54.3 Russian “offers” were poisened

The myth of Russian willingness to negotiate is propagated to portray Russia as supposedly peaceful and to justify the continuation of hostilities. Russia asserts that Ukraine’s reluctance to negotiate leaves no alternative but to continue the war. Essentially, it is issuing an ultimatum: either negotiations are conducted on our terms, leading to an end of the war, or there will be no peace.

The alleged russian peace proposal negotiated in Istanbul 2022 turned out to be a “unconditional surrender and a blueprint for the destruction of the Ukrainian state”.6

Instead of joining the Swiss peace conference in Summer 2024, Putin announced the following conditions for a ceasefire:7 - hand over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions that Russia has declared russian territory (which would give even more territorial gains to Russia in exchange for nothing) - Renouncing the protection of NATO (which would deny Ukraine protection against yet another russian invasion)

and for a sustainable peace Putin requested additionally8

  • permanent neutral and non-nuclear status of Ukraine (which would render Ukraine completely helpless)
  • future existence of Ukraine depending on Russia (which belies the previous sentence)
  • lifting of sanctions against Russia (which would mean de facto recognizing Russia’s illegal territorial gains under international law)

54.4 Russia has broken all contracts

Russia has broken international law with its invasions and committed all kinds of war crimes with its way of waging war, see the many chapters in the part about war crimes. In particular, Russia has broken the Budapest Agreement, which promises Ukraine security and protection in return for the surrender of its nuclear weapons, for more information see Chapter 57.

Negotiated under the auspices of France, Germany, and the OSCE and signed by Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE special representative in September 2014 and February 2015, the Minsk agreements were meant to be an instrument on the road to peace.9 Frequently, though inaccurately, they are referred to as “Minsk I”10 and “Minsk II.”11 However, the latter document was specifically designed as a “package of measures” for executing the agreements that came before.

To negotiate these Minsk agreements, the Normandy Format12 was established, which is a type of meeting of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Germany, and France in the quadrilateral format. Overall, there were 18 meetings and 14 phone calls within the Normandy Format from 2014 to 2018. Despite Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s efforts to restart the process of diplomatic negotiations on the war in Ukraine, only one meeting within the Normandy format was held during the period of his presidency (in December 2019).

Russia has failed to meet its commitments under the Minsk agreements. The Russian side and its associated groups have not complied with a ceasefire, have not removed heavy weapons, have not completed a full exchange of political prisoners, nor have they enabled the delivery of humanitarian aid via an international mechanism. The first agreement was breached with the seizure of Donetsk airport by Russia-backed military groups.13 Russia restricted free access for OSCE observers, including to the border between Ukraine and Russia, where the (highly restricted) monitoring effort was halted because of a Russian veto in the summer of 2021.

Moreover, Russia issued around 200,000 passports to residents of these two regions, who were allowed to vote in the election to the Russian state Duma in September 2021.

54.5 Ukraine cannot not surrender

Even though Russia is a state party to the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, it regularly violates the terms of this treaty. Worse: because russia is waging a war of annihiliaton, Ukraine has no choice but to defend. For more information see Chapter 56 and the goals of russia’s war in Chapter 78.

54.6 Supporting Ukraine saves lives

The only way to save Ukrainian lives and to force Moscow to negotiate is weakening Russia with sanctions (Chapter 82) and strengthening Ukraine with military support (Chapter 77).

54.7 Winning enables negotiations

Putin’s statement, to not negotiate as long as he is winning, implies there is only one way to enter negotiations and end the war: Ukraine must win.

  1. Herszenhorn, D. M., & Leali, G. (2022, February 8). Defiant Putin mauls Macron in Moscow. POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/↩︎

  2. House, W. (2022, February 12). Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/12/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-vladimir-putin-of-russia/↩︎

  3. Sydorenko, S. (2022, March 30). No Peace, No Guarantees. Istanbul Ukraine-Russia War Talks Details and Results. European Pravda. Retrieved May 1, 2024, from https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2022/03/30/7136915 /↩︎

  4. Roth, A., & Sauer, P. (2023, December 15). Putin says no peace until Russia’s goals in Ukraine are achieved. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/vladimir-putin-peace-russia-ukraine-president↩︎

  5. Institute for the Study of War. (n.d.)https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c033eyyr20do. Institute for the Study of War. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/why-putin-remains-uninterested-meaningful-negotiations-ukraine↩︎

  6. Putin’s 2022 ‘peace proposal’ was a blueprint for the destruction of Ukraine. (2024, November 5th). [Atlantic council][https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-2022-peace-proposal-was-a-blueprint-for-the-destruction-of-ukraine/]↩︎

  7. Putin lays out his terms for ceasefire in Ukraine. (2024, June 14). BBC news. from https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c033eyyr20do↩︎

  8. Putin names Russia’s conditions for ceasefire in Ukraine. (2024, June 14). Meduza, from https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/06/14/putin-names-russia-s-conditions-for-ceasefire-in-ukraine↩︎

  9. What are the Minsk agreements on the Ukraine conflict? (2022, February 21). Reuters. Retrieved May 1, 2024, from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-are-minsk-agreements-ukraine-conflict-2022-02-21/↩︎

  10. Minsk Agreement: Full text in English. (2015, February 12). UNIAN. Retrieved May 1, 2024, from https://www.unian.info/politics/1043394-minsk-agreement-full-text-in-english.html↩︎

  11. Annex I to the letter dated 24 February 2015 from the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council. (n.d.). Retrieved May 1, 2024, from https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/UA_140905_MinskCeasfire_en.pdf↩︎

  12. Ukraine tensions: what is the Normandy format and has it achieved anything? (2022, January 26). The Guardian. Retrieved May 1, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/ukraine-russia-tensions-what-is-the-normandy-format-and-has-it-achieved-anything↩︎

  13. Ukraine forces admit loss of Donetsk airport to rebels. (2015, January 21). The Guardian. Retrieved May 1, 2024, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/21/russia-ukraine-war-fighting-east↩︎